Europe is killing itself slowly.
The monetary union that was meant to pull the continent together is tearing it apart
There is a much higher chance that it will grind along like a badly designed Kazakh tractor, producing slower growth, fewer jobs and more human suffering than the same countries would have experienced without monetary union. However, the misery will be unevenly distributed between debtor and creditor countries, struggling south and still prospering north.
Everyone admits in private that Greece cannot repay its mountain of debt, so let Berlin parlay explicit debt forgiveness for continued meaningful reform by the new Greek government.
Or let German wages and prices rise, thus helping to rebalance the eurozone internally. Or agree on the kind of fiscal transfers from richer states to poorer ones that you have inside a proper federal union such as the United States, where nobody expects Alabama to perform like Silicon Valley any time soon.
But in creating a monetary union without a fiscal or political one, Europeans put the cart before the horse – and now the horse is not ready to get in front of the cart.